Methodology

Signal Generator
Methodology

Volatility Anomaly operates three systematic signal generators, each targeting a distinct structural edge in the options and equity markets. This page documents the logic, entry rules, exit criteria, and backtested results for each system — written for sophisticated traders and institutional readers.

Rules-based, not discretionary Backtested with full trade logs Automated execution pipeline
Core System

Iron Condor Signal Generator

Dividend-anchored premium selling — 90.9% win rate across 77 backtested trades

90.9%

Win Rate

77

Trades Backtested

$60,508

Total P&L

2.19

Sharpe Ratio

The Iron Condor Signal Generator identifies dividend-paying stocks with elevated implied volatility and constructs short iron condors designed to expire worthless. The system screens the S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 daily, filtering for IV Rank ≥ 50, delta 0.10–0.20 on short strikes, 21–45 DTE, and no earnings within the expiration window. A 50% profit target and 2× stop-loss rule govern all exits. Across 77 backtested trades from March 2023 through February 2024, the system achieved a 90.9% win rate, $60,508 total P&L, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.19.

Key Design Principles

  • Dividend calendar as a volatility timing tool
  • IV Rank ≥ 50 entry filter eliminates low-premium environments
  • Defined-risk structure: maximum loss is bounded at entry
  • 50% profit target / 2× stop-loss exit discipline
Volatility Module

Earnings IV Scanner

Pre-earnings implied volatility inflation — systematic capture of the IV crush

15–25 pts

Avg IV Inflation

30–60%

Post-Earnings IV Crush

1 day

Avg Days to Crush

200+

Qualifying Events/Yr

The Earnings IV Scanner exploits a well-documented structural anomaly: implied volatility consistently inflates in the 1–3 trading days before an earnings announcement and collapses by 30–60% immediately after the event. The scanner monitors the full options chain for IV Rank spikes relative to the 52-week baseline, compares expected move to historical realised move to identify overpriced premium, and generates entry signals for defined-risk short-volatility structures timed to capture the post-earnings crush. The edge is rooted in the persistent tendency of the options market to overprice earnings uncertainty.

Key Design Principles

  • IV Rank spike detection 1–3 days before earnings
  • Expected move vs. historical move comparison
  • Defined-risk structures only (iron condors, strangles)
  • Exit on open the morning after earnings announcement
Standalone Product

Microcap Catalyst Signal Generator

Real-time volume anomaly detection in the sub-$300M universe — 7-day early access

>300%

Volume Threshold

Sub-$300M

Universe

$0.50–$10

Price Range

7 days

Subscriber Lead Time

The Microcap Catalyst Signal Generator monitors the full sub-$300M market-cap universe for volume spikes exceeding 300% of the 20-day average. When a spike is detected, an AI pipeline immediately retrieves news, SEC filings, and social sentiment to identify the underlying catalyst — FDA approvals, contract awards, insider purchases, short squeezes, or undisclosed corporate events. A structured research report is generated within minutes and delivered to subscribers 7 days before public release. The system targets stocks priced $0.50–$10.00 with minimum dollar volume of $500K on the spike day.

Key Design Principles

  • Polygon.io real-time data — scans during market hours
  • Float and short interest enrichment for squeeze potential
  • AI catalyst identification from news, filings, and social data
  • 7-day embargo: subscribers receive reports before public release

Questions about the methodology?

Each signal generator page includes a full FAQ section covering edge cases, risk disclosures, and implementation details. For institutional inquiries, contact us directly.